Clean hydrogen supply to surge by 30-fold by 2030, but government targets likely to be missed.

BNEF has predicted that clean H2 supply will increase by 30-fold to 16.4 million metric tons per year by 2030, driven by supportive policy and a maturing project pipeline. However, this growth is not expected to meet most government targets. Less than a third of the 1,600 projects announced by BNEF have yet to materialize. The US is expected to become the single largest producer of clean hydrogen, accounting for almost 37% of global supply. Over half of supply comes from electrolysis, with blue H2 playing a significant role. China, Europe, and the US could account for over 80% of clean supply by 2030. However governments are likely to miss their aggregate H2 demand goals for 2030 by almost two-thirds due to longer project completion timelines and insufficient policy support. The remaining capacity in this forecast is subject to large uncertainty due to policy delays and potential changes to announced programs.